Monday, November 18, 2013

Trades for 11/18/13 - NUGT

I've been known to enter very hated stocks (does that make me a contrarian trader?) and here I go again... As tweeted earlier, I initiated a small position in NUGT. This is just a short term trade... You don't want to hold these triple crack-like ETFs for very long, because of the daily decay. But take a look at the 6-month chart and you'll clearly see why I might be holding onto this stock for a few days at least.


As you can see, the stock appears to have formed a nice double bottom. It's been holding up pretty well and the chart pattern shows that it usually bouncing off the support levels where it's currently sitting. It's interesting here as a short term trade.

Not much else going on. Keeping powder dry and staying nimble these days.

Long: AAPL, AINV, AKS, BAC, GE, GTAT, NUGT, SD, RRPIX and many mutual funds as of 11/18/13
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Thursday, November 14, 2013

Trades for 11/14/13 - FCX, FTNT, SD, CSCO

I started off the day by taking profits and closing $FCX, worth a 1% profit.

Added heavily to SD at 5.82. I removed the entire added position for a nice profit at $6 and lowered my cost for my existing shares significantly in the process. I learned that Leon Cooperman just disclosed adding 5 Million shares to his position in SD. I remain very invested in $SD.

I took profits and liquidated my position in FTNT, good for over a 2% gain.

I removed my small position in CSCO... Yes the mistake I made yesterday AH. Fortunately it was a small entry point and the loss was small. However, I will unlikely buy CSCO shares anytime in the foreseeable future, given how they deceivingly handled the earnings report. The stuff that they revealed in their CC definitely warranted a pre-announcement. Bad judgment on their part, which will surely cost them the trust and money of the investment community, including mine. Nobody was expecting that, which explains the market reaction to their guidance.

That's it for today. Amazingly, despite the CSCO fiasco, I ended up in the green for the day. I am now sitting on a pile of cash once again, along with what's left in my portfolio.

Long: AAPL, AINV, AKS, BAC, GE, GTAT, SD, RRPIX and many mutual funds as of 11/14/13
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Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Trades for 11/13/13 - GTAT, FTNT, CSCO (AH)

Today I took some profits in FTNT (bought at 19.54 a few days ago and sold some at 19.94 today) and in GTAT (bought a few days ago at 9.30 and lower, sold some at 10.42).

I believe both stocks are going higher... But the way I operate, I like to average down lower than my entry points and take back some of those shares to lock in profits. That's what I was doing the past few days with both stocks on weakness, especially with GTAT. PT for FTNT is 20.50 to 21. GTAT is a longer term plan.

But when everyone starts getting a bit too giddy, I like to lighten up just a little.

AH Update: I had an AH limit order for CSCO at 23.05, which got filled. I now also own CSCO.

AH Update #2: And doubled down my AH entry at 21.45. wasn't expecting such a negative reaction to earnings. Just finished listening to the conference call. I believe the reaction is overdone. Let's see what happens tomorrow. But definitely not a good entry point on my behalf.

Long: AAPL, AINV, AKS, BAC, CSCO, FCX, FTNT, GE, GTAT, SD, RRPIX and many mutual funds as of 11/13/13
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Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Trades for 11/12/13 - Added to SD, FCX, all other positions unchanged

Not much action going on in my portfolios. I did a little nibbling today and added a few shares to my existing positions, in particular SD and FCX.

Lots of tapering or not tapering noise... In my opinion, there won't be an actual "tapering," or a dramatic shock to the system. It will be a slow and gradual weaning off of the Fed's bond-buying program. It might or might not begin next month, but I can assure you this: the Fed will still be buying well into 2014 and very likely beyond that. The median 12-month return during periods when interest rates rose the most was a favorable 11.50% for the S&P 500.  The hype around fed "tapering" is way overrated. Forget about all the useless noise and focus on your strategy.



Until next time...




Long: AAPL, AINV, BAC, FCX, FTNT, GE, GTAT, SD, RRPIX and many mutual funds as of 11/12/13
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Monday, November 11, 2013

No Trades on 11/11/13 - Happy Veterans Day!

Holding all positions from last week and just enjoyed watching them go higher. Happy Veterans Day and a special THANK YOU to all our heroes that keep our Country and our lives safe!



Long: AAPL, AINV, BAC, FCX, FTNT, GE, GTAT, SD, RRPIX and many mutual funds as of 11/11/13
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Sunday, November 10, 2013

Weekend Charts, Observations and Opinions 11/10/13: XOI, SD, AAPL, GTAT, FCX, AINV



Hope everyone's enjoying the weekend. While enjoying a cup of coffee, I thought I would share some interesting charts and thoughts with you this weekend. I took the first chart from The Stock Trader's Almanac. They focus on seasonal trends of commodities and other investments. The following chart is that of the NYSE Arca oil index (XOI), the price weighted index composed of 13 of the largest oil and gas producers around the world:



Seasonal weakness of this sector usually ends as the cold weather rears its ugly head, typically by mid-to-end November. The XOI chart looks anything but weak, due to fairly healthy oil prices hovering around $95/barrel. I remain bullish on SandRidge Energy (SD) and I will continue to accumulate shares at current prices.


The second chart I wanted to share with you is AAPL's. While I remain bullish on AAPL long term, the chart near term seems to be embattled:


If the stock starts breaking below $512, it would have support in the upper-$480 area. That's where I'd be really backing up the truck. Technically speaking, AAPL seems to be in no-man's land at these levels.

Speaking of AAPL, apparently it recently filed another patent expressing ongoing interest in utilizing solar power for its electronic devices. Articles about what future iPhones could look like sprout out everyday, just like this one:


I was putting 2 and 2 together... Solar power, stronger glass to accommodate the curved display. Which company would enable AAPL to accomplish both? You guessed it... GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT)! AAPL should just acquire GTAT and call it a day. Now that would be a great use of some of AAPL's ginormous cash reserves.

In the past week or so, Bennett Johnston, a former senator from Louisiana and an advisory director for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), bought 38,900 shares of company stock for $1.4M.

Business Development Company, Apollo Investments (AINV) reported earnings after the close on Friday. They beat by a penny at .22/share. Net Asset Value (NAV) increased by 2% to $8.30 from $8.16 in the previous quarter. They also declared a $.20 dividend for the quarter (9.5% yearly dividend yield). They invested $412 million in 12 new and 18 existing portfolio companies, with the core of their business being in primary originations. Quarterly operating results increased net assets by $76.4 million or $0.34 per share compared to an increase of $18.8 million or $0.09 per share for the June quarter and an increase of $73 million or $0.36 per share for the year ago quarter. Net investment activity was -$59 million for the quarter due to opportunistic exits. They amended revolving credit facility to extend maturity, improve pricing and increase commitments. I am long AINV.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend, everyone!


Long: AAPL, AINV, BAC, FCX, FTNT, GE, GTAT, SD, RRPIX and many mutual funds as of 11/10/13
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Friday, November 8, 2013

Trades for 11/8/13 - AKS, GTAT, opinion on TWTR, FTNT

If you were following me on Twitter today, by now you know that I pulled the rip-chord on a stock I've owned since the low 3's, AKS. I bought the stock when absolutely nobody liked it (matter of fact it was probably the most hated and shorted stock in the market at the time) and I've held it for such a long time that it was tough for me to let go. Sort of like an ugly duckling that was turning into a beautiful swan. After a good 60% run, I decided to book profits on all my remaining shares of AKS at $5.48. I recently had a similar run with a similarly disliked stock, CLF.

As I said yesterday, my plan for GTAT is to accumulate as many shares as I can anywhere below $9.30 and I did buy some more today. This company should be printing money shortly. It's supplying necessary material to a revolutionary product in my opinion. Think about unlocking and accessing any electronic device just by touching it via fingerprint recognition. It sounds futuristic, but it's here! GTAT enables this technology with their SAPPHIRE material and I truly believe we're in the first inning with GTAT. The AAPL deal they just inked is just the beginning for them.

I like Twitter the company. I like Twitter the product. Heck, I even have a friend that was one of the first employees at Twitter and I like her very much. I like everything about Twitter, except their stock. The stock has priced in growth that will eventually or hopefully happen in the next 5-6 years, with lockup expirations and other stuff in the way. As some of you know, I don't really like investing on hope and prayers, so I won't be owning TWTR above $26/share. Maybe I'll never own it, but I'm OK with that. Just putting it out there.

On my recent purchase of FTNT, I bought it on fundamentals and technicals (see chart I posted yesterday). As long as those remain intact, I will have no problem adding onto FTNT as opportunity arises. If the story changes though, the strategy will need to change as well. Everything is looking OK here at the moment for a trade up to 20.50 to 21. Follow the money trail and follow that channel I outlined yesterday.

Enjoy the weekend everyone!

Long: AAPL, AINV, BAC, FCX, FTNT, GE, GTAT, SD, RRPIX and many mutual funds as of 11/8/13
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